Facebook will become the next Google which is the next Microsoft.
Microsoft never innovated any product. Windows was innovated by Xerox PARC, and so was the mouse. Word was invented by Wordstar and Excel like PowerPoint was acquired. Google didn’t invent anything anything either but built the most robust business model of advertising distribution, displacing traditional media. By accident it happened around a search engine. Also Facebook didn’t invent anything but took whats out there to the next lever, very similar to Microsoft or Google.
The next non inventor is probably 12 – 16 years old today and will build something on a technology that is out already but in an infant stage.
Like most others, it’s probably a high school drop off, a crazy guy, a nerd, whatever.
By the time Facebook is celebrating it’s 1 Billion’th user – probably in 2 years or so – Facebook will be the single most active software application ever built. By then open graph will help to make the Facebook ID the ultimate person identifyer to login anywhere and replace email as username. In five years from now people who argue about security breaches and privacy issues will be retired and no longer discussing things that an openly connected world just doesn’t find that relevant.
Microsoft wanted to be on every desktop. Check – done.
Google wants to distribute every conceivable bit of advertising. Pretty close.
Facebook wants to be the utility for every networker on the planet. Getting there
??? will be the application every human being is using from birth to death
What will it be? I have no clue, so we will see. But the pattern is already there. When will we see it? 2020 isch – I guess.
Nice prediction, but I think it will be sooner. I wonder what Dick Hardt thinks about this. Ever see his Identity 2,0 Keynote presentation?